The best point-spread in a football game may fluctuate during the days leading up to the game. Pros bet early in the week, because that’s when the betting lines are weakest. As the lines move in response to the pros bets, the lines become harder to beat because they more closely reflect the direction in which the money is moving, or being bet. Trainer form is that most elusive of elements, like a bar of soap in the bath. As soon as you identify it, the confounded thing slips out of your grasp.

 

James Willoughby of the Racing Post reminds us that stable form is not a constant and that you must weigh up the chances that you are jumping on a bandwagon which is just about to leave town, before lumping on a yard which has been flying.

 

Punters should try to keep their turnover high and bet as often as possible. It keeps you in the game and takes the pressure off. If you only bet rarely, but have a big bet when you do, you really have to get it right. For me, it makes more sense to divide that one stake up and have 50 bets in the same time, at a fiftieth of the stake. You’ll get more winners, the losers will matter less and your confidence will go up.